Posts

List of articles

  Indian national security and defense . (most recent on top) India's Russia oil imports. The reality Kashmir - 5 years after article 370   Agnipath scheme - An analysis The trade deficit with China Is RAW the new Mossad Pakistan's economic implosion and Kashmir Water wars - The Indus water treaty Reassessing the Chinese threat Kashmir - way forward after 370 abrogation (2019 article) Indian startups: Why Indian retail is different What to ask yourself before you startup Ed tech - the real opportunity Joining a startup ? Startup culture. India vs US (guest post) The coming unicorn meltdown The problem with delivery apps Why coffee chains are (still) not profitable - 2015 article South Asia: Pakistan's terrorism problem Pakistan's economic implosion and Kashmir Pakistan's CPEC delusion Gaza War Gaza war part 1. What Israel's invasion might look like Gaza war, Part 2, Understanding the numbers Gaza war. Part 3. 100 day update Gaza war part 4. Israel's turnarou...

Ukraine war Part 12. How the war might end

 I was prompted to write this after news of the first call between President’s Trump and Putin and a declaration at the NATO conference in Munich, where, in my opinion, the US leadership for the first time took a realistic view of the Ukraine war. It was most likely a view that has prevailed in some sections of the US and NATO national security establishment, but was suppressed in favour of the mainstream view that Ukraine, given enough weapons and support from NATO can prevail. Until the election of president Trump, most NATO countries had committed far too much to the Ukraine project and had burnt all bridges with Russia, for any alternate view to be considered. There is now a lot of talk about what shape a settlement of this conflict might take. A lot has been covered in the media. I’d like to talk about my proposed solution, looking at points not widely covered in the mainstream media. My plan takes into account the following: The battlefield reality : The mainstream media ...

Why Indian retail is different

Retail is the oldest form of business. In the context of this article, what I refer to as retail is `Offline, Direct to consumer’ businesses. My experience in retail has been in the Grocery and Food service businesses, but the points I make will be applicable across formats. The broad principles of running a retail business are well known, because retail has been around for so long. In India, startups have looked to reinvent retail and have largely done so by copying western models – for e.g. traditional mom and pop grocery stores were replaced by Supermarkets, which moved to more niche categories. A few years after supermarkets came online retail, one or whose new avatars is 10 minute delivery. Each of these models has now been around for several years. None made a profit in the first 10 years of operations. Those that have now turned profitable, have wafer thin margins. The most profitable supermarket chain – Avenue Supermarkets (D Mart) has a net profit of 5% The reason for this...

Want to startup ? Questions to ask yourself

Startup forums and resources for entrepreneurs are full of advice about what you should know before you start your venture, or the qualities a successful entrepreneur needs. Startups are booming in India. What is different in the business environment today is that it is easier to do business in a completely legal way and make a profit. Startup founders are more willing to take risks. Entry barriers are lowered – Access to money, connections or the right community matters less. One consequence of the rise of the startup culture is that government departments have become more startup friendly and there is more choice and more professionalism in the services a startup requires - Law firms, Marketing & PR, design firms etc.   In my years of first running a startup, then being part of angel investor groups and advising a few startups and entrepreneurs, I find the people who want to take the plunge into entrepreneurship are not asking themselves what I think are basic question...

India's Russian oil imports - the reality

 While writing about and discussing the Ukraine war in my blog series, a comment I hear most often about India’s position, is that India is: Cosying up to Putin by buying Russian oil, or India is deliberately violating sanctions by buying oil – and financing Russia’s military. Those who do not attribute any malafide intention on India’s part claim India is doing so to avail of big discounts on Russian oil. This is not just incorrect, but hides the more cynical economic interests of the countries sanctioning Russia. Before analyzing Indian oil purchases from Russia, I few basic points for readers: Oil is exported in crude or refined form. Since refineries are often located close to where the end product is consumed, oil exporters usually have lower refining capacity than their crude producing capacity. Oil price movements have been the subject of innumerable studies. In general: Oil demand generally increases less than GDP growth. It is reducing in advanced economies where ...