DeansMusings

 In part 10 – prelude to a Russian winter offensive, I had described how a Russian winter offensive might unfold. The reality has been somewhat different, which necessitated this piece. https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/11/ukraine-war-part-10-prelude-to-winter.html As I have covered earlier in this series, the turnaround in casualty ratios has started from the summer of 2024. NATO estimates of Russian capabilities were based on their performance in the first two months of the war (when Russia attempted a show of force to get Ukraine to negotiate, rather than a full-fledged invasion). Russian forces were outnumbered till Mid 2023 and there was no net change in territory controlled during 2023. The casualties and territory gained since 2023, can be summarized as follows:   Est Ukrainian irrecoverable losses /month * Est Russian irrecoverable losses/ month** Territory captured by Russia sq km (net) 2023 Avg 16313 ...

 I was prompted to write this after news of the first call between President’s Trump and Putin and a declaration at the NATO conference in Munich, where, in my opinion, the US leadership for the first time took a realistic view of the Ukraine war. It was most likely a view that has prevailed in some sections of the US and NATO national security establishment, but was suppressed in favour of the mainstream view that Ukraine, given enough weapons and support from NATO can win. Until the election of president Trump, most NATO countries had committed far too much to the Ukraine project and had burnt all bridges with Russia, for any alternate view to be considered. There is now a lot of talk about what shape a settlement of this conflict might take. A lot has been covered in the media. I’d like to talk about my proposed solution, looking at points not widely covered in the mainstream media. My plan takes into account the following: The battlefield reality : The mainstream media narr...