List of articles

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 Indian national security and defense. (most recent on top)

India's Russia oil imports. The reality
Kashmir - 5 years after article 370 
Agnipath scheme - An analysis
The trade deficit with China
Is RAW the new Mossad
Pakistan's economic implosion and Kashmir
Water wars - The Indus water treaty
Reassessing the Chinese threat
Kashmir - way forward after 370 abrogation (2019 article)

Indian startups:

Ed tech - the real opportunity
Joining a startup ?
Startup culture. India vs US (guest post)
The coming unicorn meltdown
The problem with delivery apps
Why coffee chains are (still) not profitable - 2015 article

South Asia:
Pakistan's terrorism problem
Pakistan's economic implosion and Kashmir
Pakistan's CPEC delusion

Gaza War

Gaza war part 1. What Israel's invasion might look like
Gaza war, Part 2, Understanding the numbers
Gaza war. Part 3. 100 day update
Gaza war part 4. Israel's turnaround
Gaza war part 5. June 24 update
Gaza war part 6. One war ends. A new war begins ?
Part 7, the war against Hezbollah
Israel's war. Part 8. The ceasefire and beyond

Ukraine war

Ukraine, Part 1. Understanding the numbers
Ukraine war part 2. Artillery
Ukraine war. Part 3. Missed opportunities and blunders
Ukraine war Part 4. Ukraine's counter offensive
Ukraine war, Part 5. Analysis of Russian casualties
Ukraine war Part 6. What winter (2023) will bring
Ukraine war. Part 7. Two years of war
Ukraine war part 8. Casualties, Orbat and Kursk
Ukraine war. Part 9. Sector wise analysis
Ukraine war. Part 10. Prelude to the winter offensive.
Ukraine war. Part 11. The missile war

Personal:

My book 5 years later. How realistic was it ?





















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Kashmir - 5 years after Article 370

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I wrote an article 5 years ago, in Swarajya, when article 370 was revoked. https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2023/07/kashmir-way-forward-after-370.html In that I suggested that developing tourism had the potential to transform the state, by generating hundreds of thousands of jobs. This is what happened in Tibet when mass tourism from Mainland China followed the development of high speed rail, which increased tourism 80 times, to over 40 million a year (compared with 2.7 million visiting the Kashmir valley).       The barriers to this were the completion of long delayed infrastructure projects (such as the rail project linking Srinagar to Jammu and northern India) and the level of militancy. 5 years after the revocation of article 370 is enough time to see how things progressed. Militancy:      Avg. 2014 - 18 Avg.   Aug ‘19 - Jul 24      Jun-Jul 24 Civilians Killed / year 132 ...
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The Gaza war - Part 5. What next ?

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  Since my last post in April, there have been some significant non military developments in this  conflict.  Israel’s GDP grew in the 1 st Quarter of 2024 (after a fall in Q4 2023), showing it has shrugged off the effect of war. GDP growth was close to pre war estimates. Iran will elect a new President on 28 th June. His policy may impact Israel’s policy towards Hezbollah. A word about the deployable strength of the IDF : An IDF brigade is barely 2000 personnel (it is lower in an armored brigade), compared to over 3000 in an Indian army brigade. Reserve personnel who have been mobilized and form the bulk of the IDF soldiers in combat in Gaza, cannot be mobilized for more than 60 days. Thus reserve units who have been fighting in Gaza for several months, have deployed only individual battalions of those brigades at any point of time. A particular reserve brigade may be deployed in Gaza on paper, but in reality, only a single battalion (barely 500 personnel) of t...
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Ukraine war part 7 - After 2 years

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In part 6 of this series, I had made 2 major sets of assumptions: https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2023/10/ukraine-war-6-logistics-politics-and.html Manpower : Ukraine had deployed all its trained manpower and all volunteers (1 million), to be left with an army of around 500,000 men, which is lower than Russia’s and of worse quality &    Plans : Russia would conduct several small attacks across the front – most likely in Avdeevka, giving the Ukrainians a choice of either defending and accepting an unfavorable casualty ratio, or giving up ground.  These assumptions were correct. Russian operations, particularly the capture of Avdeevka have exacerbated Ukraine’s manpower problems and worsened loss ratios.  Trends in losses : What is significant with the current manpower numbers, is that they have, in my view, crossed a tipping point for Ukraine and have moved loss ratios more sharply in favor of Russia. This is inevitable if the bulk of the Ukrainian army now cons...
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