DeansMusings

So far in this series I have analyzed, with the help of data, developments in the war, to try and understand what happened and why, by discussing the strategic and operational issues that each side has to deal with.  In this post, I will talk about what I expect to happen in the next few months. It is said that amateurs discuss strategy and professionals, logistics. Since I haven’t covered logistics, except in passing, so far in this series, I will do so now. There are 2 news items that prompted me to do this: Russia banning the export of diesel &  A  rail line being built from Donetsk to Mariupol.   I will discuss the implications of both later, but first, a reminder of the basic factors that shape this, or any war:  - Objectives  - Manpower.  - Arms, ammunition & logistics. - Political considerations   Objectives : I think the most misunderstood part about the Ukraine war, is Russia’s objectives. Invading and occupying Ukraine was ne...

  Understanding Ukraine’s counteroffensive As I am not a military man, I would hesitate to comment on an actual battle, not just due to lack of subject matter expertise, but because there would be many who can do a better job of explaining military operational art. My posts on the Ukraine war have been either on grand strategy, or commenting on certain parameters, based on open-source data, where I think they are important indicators of how the conflict will pan out and there is no single article I have read that provides a good explanation. In this context, the Ukraine counter offensive (CO) which started on 4 th June has also not had analysis which looks at numbers and overall strategy to explain what is happening on the ground. Most Western reporting echoes press releases from the Ukraine Ministry of defense and reflects what the writers would ideally like to see happen, while Russian posts talk of heavy Ukrainian losses to a point where they are not credible. After going ...