DeansMusings

The movie `Border' brought the 1971 India-Pakistan war – more specifically the Battle of Longewala, into popular imagination. While movies, particularly those by Bollywood which have traditionally taken liberties with historical accuracy, are allowed some license in portraying events, I think the reality of the Battle of Longewala brings out more of the ethos of the Indian army than the movie shows.  Nor is the revisionist claim that there was no real ground battle and the IAF did everything, correct.  There is also a larger strategic picture that is missed when talking of the heroic stand of 120 men at Longewala. What the battle achieved strategically has been little understood. Information on the battle, of the kind that will interest a serious student of military history is scarce. After trawling through them, this piece attempts to show what really happened, why the reality was more impressive than the movie and how it affected the larger picture.     What...

 In my last blog post I had ended my analysis with this: Winning an attritonal war depends on the manpower reserves of each side (Russia is six times more and suffering fewer casualties) the ability to supply armaments - Russia is able to replace hardware losses. Ukraine cannot – even with NATO but not US support), and the will to fight.  My sense is that the Ukrainian army is sufficiently attritted for Russia to start a spring offensive once the ground hardens after the spring thaw. Once they take most of the four provinces (with territory captured in other areas exchanged in an eventual peace deal), Russia will dig into defensive positions, from where they will offer a ceasefire – which they are under a lot of pressure to do, under the threat of more US sanctions. Once on the defensive, Russian casualties and consumption of armaments will be lower than while they have been attacking. Ukraine’s losses will be correspondingly higher, which will facilitate a de-facto cea...