DeansMusings

This is the first time in any conflict where a war has first been started and then diplomatic pressure resorted to, by the aggressor. The US has announced its toughest ever sanctions on Iran in the hope that Iran, which has survived so far – with a population more united behind the regime and against the US and its missile and drones largely intact, will agree to US terms to end the conflict . In this context, I’d like to revisit some of the data points I covered earlier, to see how it leaves both sides. Some of these were covered in my previous post. Iran war - Part 3 Oil flows through the strait of Hormuz:  Compared to approx 3 million barrels/day oil (3 MBD) exiting the strait during the height of the conflict in March-April, tankertracker.com (which counts tankers verified from satellite signals), shows the equivalent of 6-7 MBD, leaving the strait in August. This is a third of the oil flowing before the war - assuming some tankers have trackers switched off, it may be 40...

 At the time of writing this, the Iran war has resumed for 14 days and it is a good opportunity to review my previous assumptions made about the war and on India’s oil security. 14 days of consecutive fighting (not brief fighting during a ceasefire) is enough time for the conflict to take on a shape that one can draw conclusions from. This is a continuation from the two previous articles in this series, focussing more on the economic consequences of the war an how they might shape military operations. https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/iran-war-part-2-calm-before-storm.html India's coming oil crisis I had made the following predictions: 1.        Iranian oil wells (production) will not irrecoverably collapse from ending exports, because most oil produced is consumed domestically (thereby oil wells will produce more than their minimum viable output). This was correct. 2.        Iran would not feel the loss of oil revenue ...

I have worked in Iran and done business with Israel. I know people in both countries and won't take sides, or discuss the politics of the conflict. I think this war should not have started if the leadership of each country worked in their country's interest. The irrationality around some of the decision making makes this conflict scary, while being of interest to a dispassionate observer like me.  A lot has been written on the ongoing war, examining subjects from military operations, oil supplies and political analysis – with analysts of all ideological biases weighing in. However, I don’t think enough has been written about the timelines and compulsions for each side - which in my view will determine how this conflict will be fought and end. This article looks at disparate factors that will influence the conflict. Weapon stocks : There are three variables, all of which point to the current war – waged by missiles and drones from long range lasting for no more than a month. ...

I decided to write this, as the narrative in the Indian media gives the impression that the Iranian warship IRIS Dena (Islamic republic of Iran ship DENA) was invited to India for the international fleet review we hosted and on departing, ship was sunk by a US submarine. It has been alleged that the sinking of an unarmed ship, with mostly cadets under training, was a war crime and a snub to India, since the ship was `under our protection’. At the least it questions our credentials in being the guardian of the Indian ocean, or allowing our `guest’ to be killed in cold blood. I have a different view and one not speculated on by the media. I think it was an audacious and high risk gamble by the Iranian navy, to target US merchant shipping, in the event of war. That gamble failed. The gamble involved 3 Iranian warships (not just the IRIS Dena) that were deployed far from home waters, to carry out what might have been a surprise attack on US supply or merchant shipping, in an unexpected are...