Ukraine war part 7 - After 2 years
In part 6 of this series, I had made 2 major sets of assumptions: https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2023/10/ukraine-war-6-logistics-politics-and.html Manpower : Ukraine had deployed all its trained manpower and all volunteers (1 million), to be left with an army of around 500,000 men, which is lower than Russia’s and of worse quality & Plans : Russia would conduct several small attacks across the front – most likely in Avdeevka, giving the Ukrainians a choice of either defending and accepting an unfavorable casualty ratio, or giving up ground. These assumptions were correct. Russian operations, particularly the capture of Avdeevka have exacerbated Ukraine’s manpower problems and worsened loss ratios. Trends in losses : What is significant with the current manpower numbers, is that they have, in my view, crossed a tipping point for Ukraine and have moved loss ratios more sharply in favor of Russia. This is inevitable if the bulk of the Ukrainian army now cons...