DeansMusings

This is the first time in any conflict where a war has first been started and then diplomatic pressure resorted to, by the aggressor. The US has announced its toughest ever sanctions on Iran in the hope that Iran, which has survived so far – with a population more united behind the regime and against the US and its missile and drones largely intact, will agree to US terms to end the conflict . In this context, I’d like to revisit some of the data points I covered earlier, to see how it leaves both sides. Some of these were covered in my previous post. Iran war - Part 3 US Strategic petroleum reserves . The reserve of 310 million barrels in mid-July is now 289 million barrels (21 Aug). This is the lowest level since 1982 (when demand for oil was much lower). The practical floor is considered 250 million barrels (more optimistic estimates are 150-170 million). That is largely moot. Federal law requires that reserves not go below 252.4 million barrels unless there is an emergency. The US...

 In my last article, I opined that Russian losses in infantry have prevented a more rapid advance. Part 18 - the case against Russia The use of drones, which have increased exponentially, particularly by Ukraine, have made advances more difficult over time. I also said this:     Russia’s domestic economy is only being kept out of recession by a windfall from oil and gas exports due to the Iran war.   Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy and other high value targets are beginning to hurt morale and cause economic damage (going by people’s comments on Russian channels). It has necessitated mobilization of reservists (and some volunteers) in anti-drone units. This force might include some of those who would normally be in the anti-aircraft regiment of existing divisions (which no longer have to face a threat from Ukrainian aircraft) but it means reduced manpower for divisions at the front.   The war has also gone on longer than the Great Patriotic war (194...

 At the time of writing this, the Iran war has resumed for 14 days and it is a good opportunity to review my previous assumptions made about the war and on India’s oil security. 14 days of consecutive fighting (not brief fighting during a ceasefire) is enough time for the conflict to take on a shape that one can draw conclusions from. This is a continuation from the two previous articles in this series, focussing more on the economic consequences of the war an how they might shape military operations. https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/iran-war-part-2-calm-before-storm.html India's coming oil crisis I had made the following predictions: 1.        Iranian oil wells (production) will not irrecoverably collapse from ending exports, because most oil produced is consumed domestically (thereby oil wells will produce more than their minimum viable output). This was correct. 2.        Iran would not feel the loss of oil revenue ...

The 1947-48 India-Pak war, or the first Kashmir war, was the longest India-Pakistan war. It is also the least studied. Having read several accounts from both sides, I believe our (India’s) view of the war emphasises some remarkable achievements that prevented the loss of Kashmir and key towns in it. For example the airlift that saved Srinagar (and Kashmir), along with the breaking of the siege of Poonch and Leh. While it is right to celebrate our achievements and the bravery of the soldiers of both the India army and state forces, we also need to understand where things went wrong – I believe they did, at the level of political objectives and planning. Those lessons may be more valuable for us.  As someone with an amateur interest in geopolitics and military history, I believe there were larger lessons of this conflict and the mistakes made – some of which were repeated in India’s later wars.  Before commenting on mistakes and lessons to be learnt, a summary of what went ...