DeansMusings

  Understanding Ukraine’s counteroffensive As I am not a military man, I would hesitate to comment on an actual battle, not just due to lack of subject matter expertise, but because there would be many who can do a better job of explaining military operational art. My posts on the Ukraine war have been either on grand strategy, or commenting on certain parameters, based on open-source data, where I think they are important indicators of how the conflict will pan out and there is no single article I have read that provides a good explanation. In this context, the Ukraine counter offensive (CO) which started on 4 th June has also not had analysis which looks at numbers and overall strategy to explain what is happening on the ground. Most Western reporting echoes press releases from the Ukraine Ministry of defense and reflects what the writers would ideally like to see happen, while Russian posts talk of heavy Ukrainian losses to a point where they are not credible. After going ...

In the summer of 2020, India faced the biggest threat to its national security in decades, though that’s little known, let alone understood.   The background to this goes back to Aug 19, when India abrogated article 370. It was a bold decision by the govt of India, because the feeling in political circles was that the Kashmir insurgency, which was largely under control, after a flare up in 2016, would increase sharply, with the support of the local population angered by the abrogation of article 370. For Pakistan it was almost tantamount to an act of war by India. Not reacting to it would expose the Pak establishment (the army and by extension the militant groups they control) as toothless.   A very heavy presence of paramilitary forces and an increased army presence along the LOC, prevented any increase in the insurgency in the first few months. In the beginning of 2020, incidents of firing across the LOC, by Pakistan increased to over double the 2018 figure. 2020 recorded ...

This is a piece I wanted to write 2 years ago, when startup funding in India was at its peak and was to reflect my contrary views when talking to people in the startup ecosystem. The current negative news around Byju’s and other Unicorns will make this article dated. While I cannot say `I told you so’, I believe some of the following points have not been adequately covered in the media and are relevant to understand what might happen with Indian startups. I believe we’re seeing the start of an implosion in the Indian Unicorn world. This has the potential of affecting companies in the real world, rather than only the parallel universe the Unicorns seem to exist in. A google search will have innumerable articles on a `funding winter’, fewer startups being registered and funded etc. However, there are some more sobering statistics which are not reported – instead there is an obsession with valuation.   There are approx. 90,000 registered startups in India. About half are active i...

  5 years ago, I had completed by book `2022. India’s two front war'. https://www.amazon.in/2022-Indias-two-front-war-ebook/dp/B07Q29P3M1/ref=sr_1_1?crid=ZV4GF4U6FTTC&keywords=2022+india%27s+two+front+war&qid=1686912258&sprefix=2022+india%27s+two+front+war%2Caps%2C245&sr=8-1 The book was about a fictional war that India fights with China and Pakistan in Oct 22. It was not a genre that had publisher interest, so I had to self-publish it on Kindle in Mar 19. I thought it useful, 5 years later to see how much of the book, written 4 years before events, was realistic.   The book was the only one as far as I know that had the exact order of battle (ORBAT) of the Indian, Chinese and Pakistani armed forces and had all army formations accounted for on each day of the war. Though 500+ pages, it took me more time researching it that writing. Not being from the armed forces, I could research topics with an open mind and also travel to some of the places in the book, to...

  The problem with delivery apps in India When first studying economics and later business, I learnt that building a profitable business depends on: Supply and demand (if demand goes up relative to supply, price increases) & Solving a problem better than competition. The example of Uber and Ola in India illustrate what I mean by supply and demand. Ride hailing apps worked well in markets like the US where they got car owners (e.g. retired people or college students) to work part time as Uber drivers. This added to the number of cabs available. When supply went up, relative to demand, prices fell. The reduced prices attracted new customers, who wanted a better alternative to public transport or their own vehicle, but at a lower cost than conventional cabs. The lower price was acceptable to the supplier (Uber driver) as it was extra income for him, thru utilizing his idle asset (car) and time. In India, the average car owner would not want to drive a stranger for money an...