My book - 5 years later.
5 years ago, I had completed by book `2022. India’s two front war'.
The book was about a fictional war that India fights with China and Pakistan in Oct 22. It was not a genre that had publisher interest, so I had to self-publish it on Kindle in Mar 19. I thought it useful, 5 years later to see how much of the book, written 4 years before events, was realistic.
The book was the only one as far as I know that had the exact order of battle
(ORBAT) of the Indian, Chinese and Pakistani armed forces and had all army
formations accounted for on each day of the war. Though 500+ pages, it took me
more time researching it that writing. Not being from the armed forces,
I could research topics with an open mind and also travel to some of the places
in the book, to see what the environment, particularly logistics would really
be like. My travel took me to Sikkim (during the Doklam border crisis), the Kashmir
valley in winter, Shillong, Himachal and the Andamans.
A remarkable fact about the readership of the book was that
it sold more copies in the US than in India – though the book deals with
warfare in India and is of limited interest in the US. In India, I had more
interest from non-military people, rather than from the services fraternity. I
think it’s a matter of concern if our armed forces are not open to looking at
outside perspectives. There is a similar problem when it comes to analyzing our
past battles. We do not have official histories and very few books offering a
critical analysis of battles. This invariably leads to uninformed myth making rather
than learning from history.
What the book got right:
- The Indian foreign secretary becomes the de-facto foreign minister (actually
happened when Dr Jaishankar took over).
- Pakistan faces a serious economic crisis with tensions between the elected Govt
and the Army.
In my book Pakistan chooses war as a way
out. They choose instead the saner alternative, which
was its near bankruptcy in 2023.
- There are suggestions that China faces the kind of internal tensions the book
talks of.
- The war in the book starts in Ladakh, the same place we almost went to war
after the Galwan clash in
2020. This was, as the book suggested, our most
vulnerable area of the LAC/LOC.
- After Galwan, Ladakh was reinforced. The current Order of battle (ORBAT) is similar
to what my book has
as the Indian army’s a pre-war deployment.
- A Mig 21 shoots down a F-16 in Kashmir (not took difficult to speculate on,
since Srinagar has a
Mig-21 squadron.
- We successfully launch an anti-Satellite missile.
- Suicide drones make their debut (not in India, but the Ukraine war).
- The Indian govt was more stable than in my book.
- India has only taken baby steps in military reform – nowhere near the level
of the book.
- Defense procurement remains inefficient. Part of the reason may be that Covid
delayed some of our procurement and timelines for deployment of new weapon platforms.
e.g. the S-400 is not yet deployed in the strength present in my book, for
2022. However, there is a newly commissioned INS Vikrant with
Tejas and Rafale squadrons for the IAF.
- China seemed reluctant to continue squatting on the territory they had
encroached on in 2020, but
their development of infrastructure to support a large force on the LAC,
suggests that the scenario in
the book could well play our in reality in future.
- The book did not anticipate the revoking of article 370, which led to a level
of insurgency that is much
lower currently, than in 2018 (which I assumed
would continue in 2022).
Read this book and found it to be a rivetting read! And remarkably prescient in its predictions. Would recommend it to anyone who's interested in the war story genre.
ReplyDeleteThanks. I am an amateur writer from a non military background, so your encouragement means a lot.
DeleteI read your book in 2021, I was blown away. Especially at the use of gray tactics and subversion behind enemy lines. I think that might have become less feasible, the grip of PAP is much stronger now. On the other hand, the infighting, corruption scandal and the leaking of the entire structure and deployment of PLA Rocket Force would be perfect research material for a revised version. I wonder if you read Dragonfire during your research, it was more fictional and less accurate but kind of similar genre. If you can find the time, it would be great to have a follow on book
ReplyDeleteThanks. I am looking at a 2nd book.
Deletemust read for all think tankers in India and lot of backyard analysts spouting on yt day and night including many retired forces personnel. thoroughly enjoyed it some years ago, will re-read it in some time saar
ReplyDeleteThanks for your kind words. I wrote this partly as a wish list for defense reform and partly since there was nothing similar in this genre.
ReplyDelete