DeansMusings

  I will write about the military aspects of the Gaza conflict rather than analyse who is right – there are already innumerable articles on the political aspect of this conflict by people of every persuasion and I have nothing new to contribute.    I do not think the factors that determine the success of military operations have been adequately covered in the mainstream media (incl. Israeli sources). The numbers presented are often misleading and numbers I consider more relevant have not been considered. I believe the following analysis is more helpful in understanding what might happen. Previous conflicts in Gaza:   Previous ground incursions into Gaza, or Lebanon were preceded by days of air and artillery strikes and a limited ground incursion, with infantry used sparingly. Air strikes have always killed more civilians than militants (as per neutrals like UN agencies). Typically 3 civilians for every militant killed (though the definition of militant might incl...

So far in this series I have analyzed, with the help of data, developments in the war, to try and understand what happened and why, by discussing the strategic and operational issues that each side has to deal with.  In this post, I will talk about what I expect to happen in the next few months. It is said that amateurs discuss strategy and professionals, logistics. Since I haven’t covered logistics, except in passing, so far in this series, I will do so now. There are 2 news items that prompted me to do this: Russia banning the export of diesel &  A  rail line being built from Donetsk to Mariupol.   I will discuss the implications of both later, but first, a reminder of the basic factors that shape this, or any war:  - Objectives  - Manpower.  - Arms, ammunition & logistics. - Political considerations   Objectives : I think the most misunderstood part about the Ukraine war, is Russia’s objectives. Invading and occupying Ukraine was ne...