Pakistan - Unknown gunmen strike again

I had earlier written about how `unknown gunmen’ were killing off leading figures among Pakistan’s terrorist groups and speculated that RAW was doing things that hitherto were associated only with agencies like Mossad. My reasons for believing that India had contracted out the killing of these high value targets, rather than them falling out with their handlers in Pakistan’s ISI, or inter-group rivalry were:

- Several of those killed were among India’s most wanted, protected by the ISI. The loss in morale to the group was costlier than any gain to the ISI from dispensing with that person.

- People across terrorist groups were killed, so it was not as if the ISI was trying to cut one group down
  to size. Nor to the groups have a history of inter group killings.

- Some of those were low level operatives, but of particular importance to India. For e.g. the abductor
  of Cdr. Kulbhshan Jadhav, the person responsible for beheading an Indian soldier etc (who was also
  beheaded in the same location), as listed in the previous link.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2023/11/is-raw-new-mossad.html

I had listed 19 such killings, all by unknown gunmen, till Nov ‘23. Since then, killings have resumed though there had been pressure on India by Canada and the US, in the wake of the killing of Khalistani terror suspect Nijjar in Canada and the plot to kill the Khalistani separatist leader Pannun in the US.

Canada had alleged that Indian intelligence, possibly with the knowledge of the home minister, or Prime Minister himself, was behind the killing of Nijjar. Canada, demanded action action against those responsible and there was a spate of diplomatic tit for tat including the expulsion of each other’s high commissioners. India stood its ground, asking for evidence, which was not provided, neither was a link established after four people, suspected of the killing, were arrested in Canada.  

The Canadian position appeared to have strengthened when the US alleged that a sting operation showed that Indian agents plotted the assassination of the US-Canadian citizen Pannun. There was a series of leaks from Canada, to the international media, alleging among other things that India was responsible for the assassination of 20 people in Pakistan from 2020 onwards, as my earlier blogpost suggests. This was one such article. 
Allegations of India's role in assassinations in Pak

India’s position was that it would take action if presented with evidence. In the case of the US, both sides seemed to agree that the plot was the work of a rogue agent and the matter seems have been mutually settled. After the resignation of Canada’s PM Trudeau, the Nijjar affair also seems to have been downplayed. There seems to have bene a break in India’s action during the peak of the diplomatic crisis with Canada and the US, but killings have resumed with the election of a US govt perceived to be more sensitive to India’s security needs and the resignation of Trudeau, whom it was felt in India, had indulged pro Khalistan elements in Canada, including his coalition partner. India’s stand has been a new normal in how it is perceived to be tackling extremism.

The next round of killings in Pakistan, starting with the most recent:

Amir Hamza: 21 May '25 Co founder of LeT. Rushed to military hospital after being critically ill. 
After the killing of Saifullah Khalid, the ISIS would not want to admit it failed to stop another assassination attempt.

Saifullah Khalid. 18 May 25. LeT. Shot in Sindh. Planned attacks in India going back to 2005.

Mufti Abdul Noorzai. 16 Mar ’25. JUI leader. Shot in Quetta

Abu Qatal. 15 Mar 25. LeT. Close associate of Hafiz Sayeed. Operated in POK, but killed in Punjab, with his bodyguard.

Mufti Shah Mir – 9 Mar ’25. JUI. Planned the kidnapping of Cdr Kulbhushan Jadhav.
In Oct 23, the other person who planned the kidnapping, Mullah Bahaur was shot dead. The ISI would presumably have increased security around Mir. He was shot in Baluchistan.

Maulana Kashf Ali – 17 Feb 25 Headed LeT’s political wing. Brother-in-law of Hafiz Sayeed.
Shot in KP province.

Mufti Fayaz: 20 May 24. JeM preacher and recruiter. Killed in KP    

Sheikh Jameel Ur-Rehman. 3 Mar 24. Head of the united Jihad council and the TuM group.
Killed in KP. Details of his death not released. Originally from Pulwama, Kashmir.   

Abdullah Shaheen. 22 Dec ’23. LeT trainer. Most likely shot, but death shown as road accident.

Haji Umar Gul 21 Dec ’23. LeT financer, killed with two bodyguards in KP,  

Hababullah 17 Dec ‘23 . LeT recruiter. Shot in KP

Adnan Ahmed. 6 Dec 23. Plotter of the attack on the CRPF at Pampore in 2016. Shot in Karachi

Yunus khan. 25 Nov ’23 JeM recruiter. Shot in FATA.

Md Muzammil & Naeemul Rehman. LeT terrorists, 15 Nov ’23. Shot in Sialkot.

Thus, in addition to the 19 believed killed by `unknown gunmen’ till 11 Nov 23 (previous blogpost), another 14 (possibly 15) have been killed till 21 May 25. As in the past, none of the assassins have been traced and no one has claimed responsibility. These men have been shot in all provinces of Pakistan (in the previous round, they were also killed in Nepal and Afghanistan).  

Interestingly the killing of Saifullah Khalid and what I think is an assassination attempt on Amir Hamza, happened after Operation Sindhoor when the ISI would have provided maximum security to the surviving leadership of terror groups.   

If a killing has to be set up, Dubai would be an ideal location - I used to do sell products to Afghanistan in the Taliban era. Afghanistan was then, as it is now, a centre for smuggling goods - drugs from Afghanistan and consumer products (imported duty free into Afghanistan and then re-exported 
into Pakistan or Iran. The income for both Afghan warlords and Pak generals is from `transit fees'.
Dubai is a centre for handling money and where different nationalities can meet unnoticed.
Large sums can be exchanged, in cash, based on a handshake, with no electronic record. 

I believe the killings use the tools of the Pak state against itself. Instead of paying an unemployed youth X to fight a jihad against India - where his life expectancy is a few minutes, when he tries to cross the LOC fence, he might be paid 2X for a job where no one has even been caught. 

A related blogpost:
Pakistan's terrorism problem