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Showing posts from April, 2025

Ukraine war part 14. Reviewing winter operations. A vindication of the numbers

 A fellow war analyst, `Big Serge’ has just come out with a more complete summary of operations so far this year, than my previous article, where I anticipated a big Russian spring offensive. I can do no better than reproduce his article, here. His maps are more reader friendly and conclusions mirror mine, albeit presented in a more systematic way with a greater focus on the more important sectors of the front. https://substack.com/home/post/p-159755536 I wanted to write this to share data that has validated the assumptions I have made throughout this conflict and share new data which explains the shape this conflict is taking. A word about my sources. I rely on data more than opinions. The Ukrainian/Western side tends to mention similar statistics – not surprising since most Ukrainian channels were funded by the same source (USAID) and western channels quote them. Even when their data is obviously wrong e.g. a reporting higher casualty figure than the entire combat strength of...