DeansMusings

The conflict has entered an unusual phase in which the US, after initiating military action, is relying increasingly on economic and diplomatic pressure to obtain terms it could not secure militarily - usually economic and diplomatic pressure starts first. The US has announced its toughest ever sanctions on Iran in the hope that Iran, which has survived so far – with a population more united (against the US, rather than behind the regime) and its missile and drones largely intact, will agree to US terms to end the conflict . In this context, I’d like to revisit some of the data points I covered earlier, to see how it leaves both sides. Some of these were covered in my previous post. Iran war - Part 3 Oil flows through the strait of Hormuz:  Compared to approx. 3 million barrels/day oil (3 MBD) exiting the strait during the height of the conflict in March-April, tankertracker.com (which counts tankers verified from satellite signals), shows the equivalent of 6-7 MBD, leaving th...

 At the time of writing this, the Iran war has resumed for 14 days and it is a good opportunity to review my previous assumptions made about the war and on India’s oil security. 14 days of consecutive fighting (not brief fighting during a ceasefire) is enough time for the conflict to take on a shape that one can draw conclusions from. This is a continuation from the two previous articles in this series, focussing more on the economic consequences of the war an how they might shape military operations. https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/iran-war-part-2-calm-before-storm.html India's coming oil crisis I had made the following predictions: 1.        Iranian oil wells (production) will not irrecoverably collapse from ending exports, because most oil produced is consumed domestically (thereby oil wells will produce more than their minimum viable output). This was correct. 2.        Iran would not feel the loss of oil revenue ...

In my last article I had speculated on three options the US had when a ceasefire was first declared. Of those, they exercised the second option -  `The Blockades and negotiations continue’. I had stated:  This will be an endurance test between the ability of Iran’s economy to survive without oil revenues and price rises in the rest of the world Iran war 2026 - Part 1 The US assumption behind their counter blockade, was based on two assumptions: 1. Iran will be deprived of oil revenue which will collapse their economy. 2. If Iran cannot store the oil they are extracting, they have to stop extraction, which will render their oil wells unusable for months (in some cases longer).   These assumptions have been amplified by President Trump’s tweets saying for e.g. that `in three days, the Iranian oil industry will blow up’ referring presumably to the collapse of oil wells, if production is stopped. There have also been several statements about Iran `being broke’, specifi...