Water wars. Revisiting the Indus Water treaty

 This first appeared as part of my paper on Pakistan, summary in Swarajya in 2016

Pakistan will soon be one of the most water stressed nations in the world - due to high population growth and inadequate water management. Current per capita availability at 1000 Cu meters, makes Pakistan highly water stressed and at the same level as Ethiopia. Even the rumour that India might review the Indus water treaty, or the incorrect and misguided view that India is `stealing Pakistan’s water’, causes anxiety among all sections of Pakistani society.

Pakistan’s water vulnerability is not being exploited by India. It does not require India to abrogate the Indus Water treaty (IWT), but needs to mostly do what is allowed under the IWT and in our national interest. What is also overlooked is exploitation of Afghan river water by Pakistan. The following steps by India can greatly exacerbate Pakistan’s water crisis and we believe that long before they do, India can use the resulting anxiety in Pakistan to secure real concessions. While a detailed study of the IWT is beyond the scope of this paper and has been discussed in numerous fora, it would suffice to say that under the IWT, India has exclusive use of the 3 `Eastern’ rivers of the Indus system (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej) while Pakistan has use of the 3 `Western’ rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab). However, India is permitted to build dams and use water for irrigation and domestic use (within limits)  on the Western rivers. 

 Because the use of Indus water and India’s alleged role in `stealing’ that water is so emotive in Pakistan, any Indian action, however correct and in the interests of India, will be commented in in the media. Rather than be defensive, India, while undertaking the actions we propose, should have the following narrative to explain its actions:

-        The IWT gave Pakistan over 80% of Indus water and India (despite being the upper riparian state) under 20%.

-        India has never made full use of the waters of the 3 rivers it is entitled to use.

-        India has not exploited the power and irrigation potential of the 3 western rivers, as it is allowed to and in the process has caused economic hardship to the people of J&K, incl.
POK, (to whom the state of J&K would be willing to sell its surplus power).

 What India can do:   

-        Fully exploit the hydel and irrigation potential of the Western rivers.

-        Maximise use of the waters of the Eastern rivers and deny them to Pakistan.

-        Help Afghanistan protect its water resources and deny them to Pakistan.  

1.     Western Rivers: Pakistan’s policy has been to appeal against every Indian hydroelectric project in Kashmir in an effort to stall development. The latest arbitration award, which went in India’s favor (allowing us to construct the Kishenganga project on the Jhelum) should be used as a template for India to construct all other planned dams on the Western rivers. These have not been given adequate attention. The Kishenganga dam completed in 2018, just before Pakistan’s ambitious Neelam dam project only because of the inefficiency and funding gaps that have plagued Pakistan’s project.
Fully utilising the potential of the Chenab and Jhelum (as allowed by the treaty) will have
the following advantages:

      - Kashmir becomes self-sufficient in power, It is ironic that a state which gives rise to India’s great rivers and has enormous hydroelectric potential, should be power starved. Of the estimated 20,000 MW of power potential that can be developed in J&K (some estimates put it higher) barely 6000 MW has been developed and the state has to either import power or face a shortfall. Simply completing all the projects that have been announced will make J&K a power surplus state. It can offer to export power to its fellow Kashmiris facing an acute power shortage in
POK and where the Neelam project will probably supply power at a far higher cost than India can (the cost per MW of this project is already estimated to be double of India’s Kishanganga project). This will have huge PR value, even if little power is actually supplied. While the full use of the western river water by India will reduce Pakistan’s  availability of water by under 3%, it can lead to a reduction of power potential by as much as 15% for power projects planned by Pakistan, rendering many unviable even before they are completed. With power shortfall in Pakistan already touching 30% any further gap will cause severe damage to the economy
- only remedied by buying expensive power from India (the supply being dependent on Pakistan’s good behavior).   

            -    Irrigation in J&K will be more fully developed. Though the IWT provides for 1.34
            million acres in India to be irrigated from the western rivers, only 0.79 million acres have
           been irrigated (as of 2010).  

     - The IWT provides for water from the western rivers to be used for domestic purposes. With Jammu and now Srinagar facing an acute water shortage, the Chenab drinking water project needs to be expedited and further such projects completed to meet the needs of J&K.    

           - India is entitled to store over 30 days of water supply from the Jhelum and Chenab rivers,
           which is similar to Pakistan’s current storage capacity. It gives India enormous scope to
           either withhold water during the planting season, or during drought, or release water
           during floods, both of which can cause more damage to Pakistan than a conventional war.
           Water storage on the Jhelum can be done along with completing the Tulbul barrage, 
           which was stopped in 1987 at Pakistan’s request, which makes the Jhelum navigable (north
           from Srinagar) all year round and threatens Pakistan’s Neelam valley with flooding if, for e.g.
           it continues to be used as an infiltration route. 

 A significant obstacle to cleaning the Ganga (a national priority for decades) has been the presence of   highly polluting leather tanneries discharging effluents into the Ganga.
 A leather) SEZ cluster could be set up in Akhnoor (at the Chenab River just before it enters Pakistan), relocating some units from Kanpur, where effluent treatment / NOC from the pollution control board, (greatly increasing costs) is done away with. It would lower the cost of production (hitting Pakistani exports) and creating jobs in a sensitive border area.  

A similar initiative can be done w.r.t setting up paper mills in Kashmir (close to where the Jhelum
flows into Pakistan Jhelum) which will take advantage of abundant raw material in the local area and provide much needed jobs to people in militant hit areas of Sopore and Baramulla. Paper mills can use the excess power available after completing the hydel projects on the western rivers.   

A turnaround in the power situation, with improved irrigation and flood control and more
jobs generated will be viewed as a game changer by the people of Kashmir.         

 2. Eastern rivers: Though India is allowed to fully exploit these rivers, this is not being done
          to the extent possible and we suggest the following:

    -  In 2012, Shri Narendra Modi, as the then CM of Gujarat, asked for the Indira Gandhi canal, ending in South Rajasthan, to be extended to Kutch. This can be made part of the river interlinking project and constructed as part of an ambitious MGNREGA program. 
Extending the canal will not only transform the fortunes of Kutch (the canal can also be extended to the Sabarmati, linking it by extension to the Narmada, which is part of the river linking plan announced by the govt) but ensure that a negligible amount of water from the Sutlej and Beas flows into Pakistan. Quite possibly, even the announcement that the canal will be extended will cause concertation in Pakistan and get them to negotiate seriously.

          -  The Sutlej-Yamuna link canal is being looked at as a Punjab vs. Haryana/Delhi rather than
          how it would impact the overall availability of water in India and Pakistan. Completing the canal            will ensure that the Sutlej will be bone dry, even when water from melting snow increases water              flow, by the time it reaches Pakistan.

          -  The Ravi river has its headworks at Madhopura (near Kathua) which is 126 km from the point
          the river flows into Pakistan. All the water after that headwork is allowed to flow into Pakistan.
          One way to divert that water is to increase the capacity of the canal taking Ravi water from the
          headwork to the Beas river at Mukerian. The Beas drains into the Harike barrage which supplies
          the Rajasthan canal and the extra water flowing into the canal is what can be used when the Indira
          Gandhi canal is extended into Kutch. The catchment downstream from Madhopur can also use
          Ravi water by constructing a new canal (similar to Pakistan’s Ichhogil canal) to give Punjab
          additional irrigation facilities.
          Leakages from the existing badly maintained barrage on the Ravi results in unintended flow
          of water into Pakistan.

 Although the waters from the eastern rivers account for under 5% of Pakistan’s supply from the Indus, sharply reducing water availability of these 3 eastern rivers would exacerbate not only tensions between Punjab and Sindh on water sharing (which are already acute) but also between north and south Punjab province of Pakistan. 

 3. The Kabul river. 16% of the water Pakistan gets from the Indus system comes from the Kabul    river, which rises in Afghanistan. Its most important tributary is the Swat river. There is no water sharing treaty between Afghanistan and Pakistan which has suited Pakistan, as it freely gets water from Afghan rivers. The continued civil war and lack of resources in Afghanistan have made it unable to properly exploit its water resources. It uses only 30% of its river water and has one of the lowest water storage capacities in the world. 

India has taken the lead to develop water resources along the Kabul river. The completion of
the Salma dam by India on the Hari river, is a template for further cooperation. There are 12
projects along the Kabul river identified for completion with World Bank assistance and 
Pakistan’s own estimate is that it will lose 16-17% of water it is getting from Afghanistan when these projects are complete. The extent of Indian participation has not been confirmed, but it is in India’s interest to not only participate in these projects but also influence Afghanistan’s thinking in any
Afghan-Pakistan water agreement that Pakistan will be increasingly compelled to push for.
(Talks failed in 2003 & 2009).       

Taking these measures along the western & eastern Indus and along the Kabul river can reduce the availability of water to Pakistan by an estimated 6-9% However, since river water availability varies significantly during the year, with Pakistan’s storage capacity being less than 30 days, this shortfall would be much higher in winter and can significantly damage the rabi crop, which receives only 16% of the total Indus flow (the kharif crop gets 84%). The additional power shortfall would also be higher than the water shortfall. This in an already badly water and power stressed country.     

 

 Map showing the rivers of the Indus Basin. The Kabul river rises in Afghanistan and drains into the Indus

Should India abrogate the IWT ?

There is a lot of ill-informed speculation in the Media on this point. As we have shown there is a lot that can be much before we consider abrogating the treaty. Simply announcing that we are abrogating the treaty does not help for the following reasons:

-We cannot practically derive any benefit from it for years, as we lack the capacity to divert the 
 Western rivers or store sufficient water, for several years, (during which our resources should be used to get what we are entitled to under the IWT, from the Eastern rivers).

- We also lose the moral high ground by walking out of an International treaty though a strong case can be made for us to legally do so.
- It would be perceived to give China more reason to divert waters of the Brahmaputra (though their decision will be governed purely by self-interest and not an India-Pak water war)   

 Instead India should do the following:

- Complete the projects on the Western and Eastern rivers on a war footing.

- Suspend talks of the IWT Panel and do not confirm or deny abrogating the treaty in future.

- Complete the Tulbul barrage and storage on the Jhelum, which can bring immediate economic
  benefits to Kashmir and pressurise Pakistan through untimely release of water.
-  Increase the pace of dam building in Afghanistan and broker a water sharing deal between
   Afghanistan and Pakistan.
- Start work on the feasibility of linking the Chenab (Western River) and Beas which at their
  closest, are separated by just 30 km. Linking these rivers (with the creation of run of the river 
  dams and some storage capacity, allowed under IWT) will give adequate water to the Sutlej-
  Yamuna canal and the Rajasthan canal, when extended upto Kutch. Securing this should be
  India’s objective in a renegotiated IWT.

 India’s position both diplomatically and internally should be that India has stuck to what is possibly the most unequal water sharing treaty in the world (affecting as many Indians as Pakistanis) as a gesture of good neighborliness. India will pursue whatever it is entitled to under the treaty, including work on the Western rivers.

Like Pakistan, India too wishes to renegotiate the treaty, to reduce the current imbalance and seek (approx.) a 25% share of Indus water, instead of the current 20% (by linking the Chenab and Beas) which will ensure a less unequal distribution of resources and create a stronger treaty and therefore more lasting peace etc. The biggest gainers would be the people of Kashmir whose interests Pakistan claims to represent.     

My related blog posts on Pakistan & Kashmir:

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/07/kashmir-5-years-after-article-370.html

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2023/07/kashmir-way-forward-after-370.html

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2023/07/pakistans-cpec-delusion-first-published.html