Pakistan's terrorism problem

 
This post has been written because all discussions on terrorism in India – which is Pakistan sponsored, focus on losses on the Indian side. A justification for Pakistan continuing state sponsored terrorism is that for a relatively small cost, India spends a large amount on security and is taking unsustainable losses, and will eventually lose its will to retain Kashmir.

As I pointed out in my article on Kashmir – 5 years after article 370 revocation, Kashmir is in fact at its most peaceful in years and it is actually terrorists that are taking unsustainable losses. 
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/07/kashmir-5-years-after-article-370.html

 What has been ignored is Pakistan’s own terrorism problem, which unlike India, is home grown and less publicised. Terrorism in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province is worse than Kashmir. 

	Terrorist Incidents	Civilians killed	Security forces killed	Terrorists killed
Jammu & Kashmir	60	31	26	64
Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa	462	282	388	577
Baluchistan	230	266	278	166

(2024 – terrorism related incidents till 9 Dec. Source: satp.org)

 In Kashmir, all the numbers listed in Satp.org can be confirmed from the Indian (incl. Kashmir based) media. If all the names of security forces killed in action in Kashmir, or all the civilians killed in a terrorist related incident listed in the media are collated (which I did) they match the SATP numbers.

In Pakistan, on the other hand, all reporting of terrorist incidents by the media is censored by the army.
There is a significant difference between figures reported on Pakistan social media channels (which are pro Pakistan) and the official media. My sense is deaths of civilians are passed off as militants killed. This has been an allegation made for years by Baluchistan groups. It would also be commonplace in KP province, where civilian males can carry a AK-47 without being considered militants.

The other difference in casualties is the cause of civilian deaths. All civilian deaths in Kashmir in 2024 were those executed by militants and not killed unintentionally. In Pakistan, most civilian fatalities were those killed in the crossfire between militants and security forces. The Pak air force for e.g. has conducted air strikes against villages, where civilians will almost certainly be killed.

 In 2024, in 14 suicide bomb attacks, in KP province, 39 terrorists are reported to have been killed, for the loss of 41 members of the security forces and 12 civilians. It is hard to believe that each suicide bomb attack kills 3 terrorists (rather than just the bomb carrier). There is also no news of those members of the security forces who were injured and later succumbed to injuries – 41 was the total of those reported killed in the immediate aftermath of the explosion. 

2024 has seen the largest number of security forces killed in Baluchistan (278).
It would be misleading to look at trends in KP and FATA provinces, because 2007-9 saw a large scale conflict in the region, when the Pak army attacked anti US (`bad Taliban’) groups. 

 Interestingly, Sindh province (mostly Karachi city) had more fatalities from terrorism than Kashmir.
 From 2017, terrorism in Karachi ended as all fatalities were classified as gun violence, not terrorism.

A comparison for the period 2012-2016** for Pakistan’s provinces & J&K – when the J&K terrorism
was much worse than the period 2019-24.   

	Civilians killed	Security forces killed	Terrorists killed
Jammu & Kashmir	99	247	578
Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa	1501	443	577
FATA *	1234	728	7562
Baluchistan	1965	628	964
Sindh (Karachi)	3166	473	1119

* FATA – Federally administered tribal areas were merged into KP province in 2018
** Taking any other 5 year period does not change the conclusions.

 The most significant conclusion from this data (which is evident from any 5 years) is that the Indian security forces have succeeded to a far greater extent than Pakistan, in their main function – to protect their citizens.

 The difference in civilian casualties between adjoining areas of KP vs FATA shows how the army passes off civilian deaths in FATA (usually of unfriendly tribes) as militants. Compared to KP, the media or outsiders do not have easy access to FATA.

Interestingly, the Pakistan agency that tracks terrorism related data : PICSS (Pakistan institute for Conflict and security studies) has data for 2023 in KP, which showed 307 security forces, 222 civilians and 92 militants killed. SATP data shows 329 security forces, 205 civilians and 407 militants killed. Similarly, PICSS data for Baluchistan in 2023 listed 20 militants killed, whereas SATP shows 125.   
It's easy to inflate militant losses when no one asks to see the bodies. 

The data on militants killed from a Pakistani think tank (headed by a former General) is probably more credible than the figure given to the media, by the army, which is reported by SATP. Fortunately, for 
independent analysts like me, the Pak army didn't censor its own think tank !  

The militant deaths in KP shot up after XI corps commander Lt Gen Faiz Hameed (an Imran Khan favorite) was removed in a court martial. Notwithstanding the corruption charges he was found guilty of, he probably had a better understanding of the tribal areas from his stint as ISI head, and had less need to show success with kill ratios, than his successor.  

The effectiveness of anti-terrorist operations can be assessed by the following ratios.
I have taken the last 5 years, because 1 year’s data can be misleading.

	Security forces: Terrorists killed	Civilians: Terrorists killed
Jammu & Kashmir	190 : 769  (0.25:1)	142 : 769  (0.18:1)
Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa *	955 : 1438  (0.66:1)	739 : 1438  (0.5:1)
Baluchistan	867 : 534  (1.62:1)	746 : 534  (1.4:1)

 *KP militant deaths as reported by SATP will most likely include civilians in the FATA area, listed as militants.

 If it takes 4 terrorists to kill one member of the security forces in Kashmir, or 5 to kill one civilian,
it is an unsustainable ratio, particularly when most terrorists have to come from across the border – many are killed trying to cross the LOC and don’t make it to the SATP figures.

In Baluchistan and KP, the insurgency is self-sustaining, because the `return per terrorist killed’
is higher and because when the army kills civilians (particularly in KP where the tribal code requires
deaths to be avenged) the pool of future militants increases.

A paper on the Pakistan army’s operations in KP & FATA.
https://www.issi.org.pk/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/1339999992_58398784.pdf 

While the data is old, it cites SATP and mentions that at the height of operations in KP & FATA, the Pakistan security forces deployed 140,000 men for counter insurgency, of which almost 90,000 were from the Pakistan army (the rest from the para military frontier corps).

Two corps of the Pak army - The Peshawar based XI corps and the XII corps in Quetta, which are considered `rest' postings away from the Indian border, have been engaged in permanent counter insurgency operations for over 15 years. Pakistan deploys a greater proportion of its army on counter insurgency than India does and spends most of its operating budget (fuel & ammo) on this. I have 
made a point in a previous post that budget constraints led the Pak army to agree to a ceasefire on the LOC in Jan 2021, at a time when the Indian army was under pressure from the Chinese intrusion in
Ladakh and there was pressure from militant groups ont he Pak army to revive militancy in Kashmir, after the abrogation of article 370.
 
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2023/08/pakistans-economic-implosion.html 

I have used the terms terrorists and militants interchangeably. The distinction to my mind is that the Kashmir terrorists deliberately target civilians not connected with the security forces. When terrorists come from another country, they cannot be called freedom fighters.

The point of this post is not to say someone else is worse, or that we don't have a problem. I have been critical of some aspects of governance in Kashmir in my blog. Pakistan's primary foreign policy objective is the `death of India by a thousand cuts', with state sponsored terrorism being its main weapon. To that end they have poured scarce resources into the Kashmir project, with little return.
In the process they have ignored their own home grown militancy. 

A related post on Pakistan: 
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2023/07/pakistans-cpec-delusion-first-published.html

Note on sources: As I would like to present an unbiased picture, I had invited Pakistanis I am connected with on linkedin (who are or were in senior positions in Govt and who have a better understanding of the subject) to write. They declined - without refuting my data or conclusions. 

I have quoted data from PICSS for 2023, because that's the only year for which data was available.