DeansMusings

This is the first time in any conflict where a war has first been started and then diplomatic pressure resorted to, by the aggressor. The US has announced its toughest ever sanctions on Iran in the hope that Iran, which has survived so far – with a population more united behind the regime and against the US and its missile and drones largely intact, will agree to US terms to end the conflict . In this context, I’d like to revisit some of the data points I covered earlier, to see how it leaves both sides. Some of these were covered in my previous post. Iran war - Part 3 Oil flows through the strait of Hormuz:  Compared to approx 3 million barrels/day oil (3 MBD) exiting the strait during the height of the conflict in March-April, tankertracker.com (which counts tankers verified from satellite signals), shows the equivalent of 6-7 MBD, leaving the strait in August. This is a third of the oil flowing before the war - assuming some tankers have trackers switched off, it may be 40...

 In my last article, I opined that Russian losses in infantry have prevented a more rapid advance. Part 18 - the case against Russia The use of drones, which have increased exponentially, particularly by Ukraine, have made advances more difficult over time. I also said this:     Russia’s domestic economy is only being kept out of recession by a windfall from oil and gas exports due to the Iran war.   Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy and other high value targets are beginning to hurt morale and cause economic damage (going by people’s comments on Russian channels). It has necessitated mobilization of reservists (and some volunteers) in anti-drone units. This force might include some of those who would normally be in the anti-aircraft regiment of existing divisions (which no longer have to face a threat from Ukrainian aircraft) but it means reduced manpower for divisions at the front.   The war has also gone on longer than the Great Patriotic war (194...