DeansMusings

The conflict has entered an unusual phase in which the US, after initiating military action, is relying increasingly on economic and diplomatic pressure to obtain terms it could not secure militarily - usually economic and diplomatic pressure starts first. The US has announced its toughest ever sanctions on Iran in the hope that Iran, which has survived so far – with a population more united (against the US, rather than behind the regime) and its missile and drones largely intact, will agree to US terms to end the conflict . In this context, I’d like to revisit some of the data points I covered earlier, to see how it leaves both sides. Some of these were covered in my previous post. Iran war - Part 3 Oil flows through the strait of Hormuz:  Compared to approx. 3 million barrels/day oil (3 MBD) exiting the strait during the height of the conflict in March-April, tankertracker.com (which counts tankers verified from satellite signals), shows the equivalent of 6-7 MBD, leaving th...

 In my last article, I opined that Russian losses in infantry have prevented a more rapid advance. Part 18 - the case against Russia The use of drones, which have increased exponentially, particularly by Ukraine, have made advances more difficult over time. I also said this:     Russia’s domestic economy is only being kept out of recession by a windfall from oil and gas exports due to the Iran war.   Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy and other high value targets are beginning to hurt morale and cause economic damage (going by people’s comments on Russian channels). It has necessitated mobilization of reservists (and some volunteers) in anti-drone units. This force might include some of those who would normally be in the anti-aircraft regiment of existing divisions (which no longer have to face a threat from Ukrainian aircraft) but it means reduced manpower for divisions at the front.   The war has also gone on longer than the Great Patriotic war (194...