DeansMusings

My previous post on the Iran war, detailed how the closure of the Strait of  Hormuz would affect energy sales and impact the economies in the region. https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/iran-war-part-2-calm-before-storm.html This crisis would come from the closure of the strait of Hormuz, affecting 20% of the world’s oil and from the longer term damage to oil fields, when the amount of oil pumped is lower than the minimum flow needed to keep an oil well functioning (production is cut where there is no capacity to store extracted oil). I had taken only a passing interest in India, as I was covering the military aspects of this conflict and because the Govt and media seemed upbeat about India handling the energy shortage. A more detailed look at the numbers for India gave me cause for concern.   As a major oil importer, India will be affected more than others because we have done the least, so far, to mitigate against this. While this is not a crisis of the Govt's making...

In my last article I had speculated on three options the US had when a ceasefire was first declared. Of those, they exercised the second option -  `The Blockades and negotiations continue’. I had stated:  This will be an endurance test between the ability of Iran’s economy to survive without oil revenues and price rises in the rest of the world Iran war 2026 - Part 1 The US assumption behind their counter blockade, was based on two assumptions: 1. Iran will be deprived of oil revenue which will collapse their economy. 2. If Iran cannot store the oil they are extracting, they have to stop extraction, which will render their oil wells unusable for months (in some cases longer).   These assumptions have been amplified by President Trump’s tweets saying for e.g. that `in three days, the Iranian oil industry will blow up’ referring presumably to the collapse of oil wells, if production is stopped. There have also been several statements about Iran `being broke’, specifi...