Posts

Kashmir - way forward after 370 abrogation

  This article, part of a series with Kriti Upadhyaya, first appeared in Swarajya in Aug 2019,  after article 370 was abolished. Post covid, I see a sense of urgency in implementing some of these recommendations. Now that the dust has settled on the decision to make Articles 370 and 35-A redundant, the focus is starting to shift on the kind of development that can take place, e specially since Jammu & Kashmir’s transformation is now set to occur under central rule. A lot of the speculation surrounding the way forward is ill-informed as it ignores critical limitations of the economy of J&K, namely its lack of natural resources, low population, distance from markets  etc . These are formidable barriers to quickly improving any the economy even if there is no militancy. Another error is thinking that the development has till now been state-led. In fact, the central government has been allocating 10 per cent of its funds, for a state with 1 per cent of India’s po...

Pakistan's CPEC delusion - first published 2016

This article was first published in the Indian Military review in 2017. I believe I was the first analyst to question the benefits of the CPEC. I think it was prescient, given Pakistan's economic collapse in 2023 and a good start to my blog. Understanding the CPEC The China Pakistan Economic corridor (CPEC) involves an investment of US$ 46 billion (now US$ 51.5 billion), by China, in Pakistan. It’s been touted as the game changer that can transform Pakistan’s economy and its strategic utility. The Pakistani and Chinese establishment have been understandably very optimistic about the gains from CPEC. The Indian media’s reaction is one of concern at the China-Pakistan partnership (and its negative implications for India’s defence), with suggestions that India join the CPEC.  There is an inadequate economic analysis of the CPEC. This is resulted in criticism of the project, focusing on, in my view, secondary issues – such as the use of territory in POK, prospects of terrorism, or th...