DeansMusings

The movie `Border' brought the 1971 India-Pakistan war – more specifically the Battle of Longewala, into popular imagination. While movies, particularly those by Bollywood which have traditionally taken liberties with historical accuracy, are allowed some license in portraying events, I think the reality of the Battle of Longewala brings out more of the ethos of the Indian army than the movie shows.  Nor is the revisionist claim that there was no real ground battle and the IAF did everything, correct.  There is also a larger strategic picture that is missed when talking of the heroic stand of 120 men at Longewala. What the battle achieved strategically has been little understood. Information on the battle, of the kind that will interest a serious student of military history is scarce. After trawling through them, this piece attempts to show what really happened, why the reality was more impressive than the movie and how it affected the larger picture.     What...

The conflict has entered an unusual phase in which the US, after initiating military action, is relying increasingly on economic and diplomatic pressure to obtain terms it could not secure militarily - usually economic and diplomatic pressure starts first. The US has announced its toughest ever sanctions on Iran in the hope that Iran, which has survived so far – with a population more united (against the US, rather than behind the regime) and its missile and drones largely intact, will agree to US terms to end the conflict . In this context, I’d like to revisit some of the data points I covered earlier, to see how it leaves both sides. Some of these were covered in my previous post. Iran war - Part 3 Oil flows through the strait of Hormuz:  Compared to approx. 3 million barrels/day oil (3 MBD) exiting the strait during the height of the conflict in March-April, tankertracker.com (which counts tankers verified from satellite signals), shows the equivalent of 6-7 MBD, leaving th...

 In my last article, I opined that Russian losses in infantry have prevented a more rapid advance. Part 18 - the case against Russia The use of drones, which have increased exponentially, particularly by Ukraine, have made advances more difficult over time. I also said this:     Russia’s domestic economy is only being kept out of recession by a windfall from oil and gas exports due to the Iran war.   Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy and other high value targets are beginning to hurt morale and cause economic damage (going by people’s comments on Russian channels). It has necessitated mobilization of reservists (and some volunteers) in anti-drone units. This force might include some of those who would normally be in the anti-aircraft regiment of existing divisions (which no longer have to face a threat from Ukrainian aircraft) but it means reduced manpower for divisions at the front.   The war has also gone on longer than the Great Patriotic war (194...

 At the time of writing this, the Iran war has resumed for 14 days and it is a good opportunity to review my previous assumptions made about the war and on India’s oil security. 14 days of consecutive fighting (not brief fighting during a ceasefire) is enough time for the conflict to take on a shape that one can draw conclusions from. This is a continuation from the two previous articles in this series, focussing more on the economic consequences of the war an how they might shape military operations. https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/iran-war-part-2-calm-before-storm.html India's coming oil crisis I had made the following predictions: 1.        Iranian oil wells (production) will not irrecoverably collapse from ending exports, because most oil produced is consumed domestically (thereby oil wells will produce more than their minimum viable output). This was correct. 2.        Iran would not feel the loss of oil revenue ...