DeansMusings

The last post in this series was back in Mar. Some of the observations made then have been  quote accurate, particularly the swing in loss ratios and Russia's plans for a summer offensive.  https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/03/ukraine-war-part-7-after-2-years.html A note on casualty calculation: Both sides in this conflict have hitherto been silent on their own casualties, while inflating those of the other side, without validation. There is now more credible data which enables us to estimate casualties for both sides, using the following numbers: 1. Verifiable deaths. 2. Pro rata deaths based on (1) from regions not covered by (1). 3. Recent deaths not reported due to a time lag 4. Missing, believed killed 5. Deserted  (I have listed 50% of these under missing) 6. Prisoner To validate this, we know the starting sizes of both armies, the number recruited and the current strength, based on the number of formations present. The number of casualties can be derived...

 In my last blogpost of 10 June, I made several predictions. https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-gaza-war-part-5-what-next.html - Operations in Gaza will be largely over by the end of August. - IDF casualties in Gaza have been falling for some time, notwithstanding an increase in May,   and though Hamas has been trying to defend its last remaining strongholds.   - Two IDF divisions will handle Gaza, with a model similar to the West bank. All IDF units under    Israel’s  northern command will be moved to the North, for possible operations against Hezbollah,    after getting battle experience in Gaza. - It was not in Netanyahu’s interest to reach a ceasefire or hostages deal with Hamas, without fully   neutralizing Hamas’s in Gaza. To avoid a deal, Hezbollah will be provoked in a bid to increase   tensions and scuttle a deal. - Ground operations against Hezbollah could begin in Sept. Until then Israel can wage attritional ...

  Indian national security and defense . (most recent on top) India's coming oil crisis China and Gen Naravane's book controversy Operation Sindhoor 2.0 FAQs and Operation Rising Lion Pakistan - unknown gunmen strike again Operation Sindhoor India's Russia oil imports. The reality Kashmir - 5 years after article 370   Agnipath scheme - An analysis The trade deficit with China Is RAW the new Mossad Pakistan's economic implosion and Kashmir Water wars - The Indus water treaty Reassessing the Chinese threat Kashmir - way forward after 370 abrogation (2019 article) Indian start-ups: Zomato's conundrum - Can it ever be profitable? Free startup resources Why Indian retail is different What to ask yourself before you startup   Ed tech - the real opportunity Joining a startup ? Startup culture. India vs US (guest post) The coming unicorn meltdown The problem with delivery apps Why coffee chains are (still) not profitable - 2015 article Iran war & the Middle East (contin...

I wrote an article 5 years ago, in Swarajya, when article 370 was revoked. https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2023/07/kashmir-way-forward-after-370.html In that I suggested that developing tourism had the potential to transform the state, by generating hundreds of thousands of jobs. This is what happened in Tibet when mass tourism from Mainland China followed the development of high speed rail, which increased tourism 80 times, to over 40 million a year (compared with 2.7 million visiting the Kashmir valley).       The barriers to this were the completion of long delayed infrastructure projects (such as the rail project linking Srinagar to Jammu and northern India) and the level of militancy. 5 years after the revocation of article 370 is enough time to see how things progressed. Militancy:      Avg. 2014 - 18 Avg.   Aug ‘19 - Jul 24      Jun-Jul 24 Civilians Killed / year 132 ...